If you’d like better insight into how we made these picks, check out our last post, the Bowl Preview, which covered this thoroughly before listing our predictions.
After 39 bowl games, to this point on the eve of the CFP Championship, we are 25 – 14, or 25 of 39, in correctly picking bowl winners, only trailing 4.8% of approximately 500,000 entrants (95.2nd Percentile) in this year’s ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania pick’em pool. Last year, Hierank’s same quick pick method ended up beating out all but 3.9% of the same pool with about 850,000 entrants.
Put another way, two years running we are heading toward beating 24 out of every 25, and 19 out of every 20 pickers each year, respectively.
Even our misses, aside from a few widely unpredictable flukes, generally happened to be toss-up picks or situations with real-world circumstances that a human picker could easily consider alongside the algorithm’s choice and added volatility context.
But enough gloating, here’s a rundown of game results, our results, some commentary, and a preview for tomorrow night’s game:
College Football Playoff
Saturday, Dec. 29
Semifinal: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
(13-0) #2 Clemson 94.7 Avg, 85-105 Normal Power
vs
(12-0) #5 Notre Dame 86.0, 68-104 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
74.3% Clemson
FINAL: Clemson 30, Notre Dame 3
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Semifinal: Capital One Orange Bowl
(13-0) #1 Alabama 98.1, 79-118 Pow
vs
(12-1) #4 Oklahoma 87.7, 74-101 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
75% Alabama
FINAL: Alabama 45, Oklahoma 34
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Monday, Jan. 7
National Championship Presented by AT&T
(14-0) #1 Alabama 99.7, 80-120 Pow
vs
(14-0) #2 Clemson 98.1, 82-114 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Give:
55% Alabama
Alabama is a broad, but not clear favorite; and has been the better team consistently thus-far by a respectable but shrinking margin.
LAST 3 CONTESTS:
Alabama – 106 Pow 56-35 W vs Auburn, 116 Pow 35-28 W vs Georgia, 127 Pow 45-34 W vs Oklahoma | 116.3 Avg Pow
Clemson – 85 Pow 56-35 W vs South Carolina, 100 Pow 42-10 W vs Pittsburgh, 140 Pow 30-3 W vs Notre Dame | 108.3 Avg Pow
SHARED OPPONENTS:
Alabama – 104 Pow 45-23 W vs Texas A&M, 64 Pow 51-14 W vs Louisville | 84 Avg Pow
Clemson – 90 Pow 28-26 W vs Texas A&M, 72 Pow 77-16 W vs Louisville | 81 Avg Pow
Looking at the added dimensions of shared opponents & recent contests, Alabama maintains its Power-lead in both areas, reinforcing their 55% Normal Power Distribution-probability of winning a National Championship tomorrow night.
Bowl Schedule
Saturday, Dec. 15
Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl
(9-2) FCS#40 North Carolina A&T 48.9, 27-71 Pow
vs
(9-3) FCS#39 Alcorn State 48.9, 25-73 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
50% Alcorn State
FINAL: North Carolina A&T 24, Alcorn State 22
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
We cant even be mad at how this one turned out. A literal coin flip between two volatile teams; one with a hairline-edge so small that it is only apparent in the comparative ranking. It ended as a two point shoot-out, landing the wrong way.
Consider us almost right. 🙂
New Mexico Bowl
(9-3) #75 North Texas 57.7, 39-76 Pow
vs
(10-2) #44 Utah State 65.5, 54-77 Pow
FINAL: Utah State 52, North Texas 13
OUTCOME: CORRECT
AutoNation Cure Bowl
(6-6) #87 Tulane 54.7, 37-72 Pow
vs
(7-6) #84 Louisiana 54.8, 43-67 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
51.4% Louisiana
FINAL: Tulane 41, Louisiana 24
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
It looked like another virtual toss-up, but Louisiana either had extraneous circumstances we weren’t privy to, or they just let us down.
Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
(11-2) #24 Fresno State 73.0, 60-86 Pow
vs
(7-5) #49 Arizona State 64.3, 47-82 Pow
FINAL: Fresno State 31, Arizona State 20
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
(9-3) #54 Georgia Southern 61.5, 44-79 Pow
vs
(7-5) #68 Eastern Michigan 59.9, 44-75 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
55.7% Georgia Southern
FINAL: Georgia Southern 23, Eastern Michigan 21
OUTCOME: CORRECT
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
(8-4) #71 Middle Tennessee 58.7, 42-76 Pow
vs
(10-2) #33 Appalachian State 69.5, 57-82 Pow
FINAL: Appalachian State 45, Middle Tennessee 13
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Tuesday, Dec. 18
Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
(10-3) #63 UAB 60.5, 42-79 Pow
vs
(8-5) #78 Northern Illinois 56.2, 41-72 Pow
FINAL: UAB 37, Northern Illinois 13
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Wednesday, Dec. 19
DXL Frisco Bowl
(7-5) #81 San Diego State 56.1, 39-73 Pow
vs
(8-4) #64 Ohio 60.4, 43-78 Pow
FINAL: Ohio 27, San Diego State 0
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Thursday, Dec. 20
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
(8-4) #74 Marshall 58.1, 44-73 Pow
vs
(7-5) #91 South Florida 52.9, 36-70 Pow
FINAL: Marshall 38, South Florida 20
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Friday, Dec. 21
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
(8-4) #89 FIU 53.5, 38-69 Pow
vs
(7-5) #73 Toledo 58.3, 42-75 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
63.5% Toledo
FINAL: FIU 35, Toledo 32
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
We’re not sure if there were predictable extraneous circumstances, but the 36.5% probability won out & Toledo let us down in the end of a close match.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
(7-5) #94 Western Michigan 51.5, 36-67 Pow
vs
(6-6) #62 BYU 60.7, 49-73 Pow
FINAL: BYU 49, Western Michigan 18
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Saturday, Dec. 22
Jared Birmingham Bowl
(8-5) #61 Memphis 60.8, 45-77 Pow
vs
(6-6) #57 Wake Forest 61.1, 37-85 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
50.3% Wake Forest
FINAL: Wake Forest 37, Memphis 34
OUTCOME: CORRECT
We feel especially right when a close “upset” pick (the ESPN pool heavily chose Memphis) wins a close game.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
(8-4) #77 Houston 56.8, 39-75 Pow
vs
(9-2) #31 Army 70.5, 53-88 Pow
FINAL: Army 70, Houston 14
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Dollar General Bowl
(10-3) #67 Buffalo 60.0, 44-76 Pow
vs
(9-3) #65 Troy 60.3, 45-76 Pow
FINAL: Troy 42, Buffalo 32
OUTCOME: CORRECT
SoFi Hawai’i Bowl
(7-5) #95 Louisiana Tech 50.4, 31-70 Pow
vs
(8-5) #96 Hawaii 50.2, 36-64 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
51.3% Louisiana Tech
FINAL: Louisiana Tech 31, Hawaii 14
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Wednesday, Dec. 26
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
(7-5) #42 Boston College 66.4, 50-83 Pow
vs
(10-3) #34 Boise State 69.1, 54-85 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
70.7% Boise State
FINAL: CANCELLED
Quick Lane Bowl
(6-6) #51 Minnesota 63.2, 34-93 Pow
vs
(7-5) #41 Georgia Tech 67.0, 48-86 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
55.9% Georgia Tech
FINAL: Minnesota 34, Georgia Tech 10
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
Minnesota was the #1 most-Volatile team in all of the college football. Georgia Tech wasn’t too consistent either. While Georgia Tech had been the cumulatively-better team going into the bowl game, Minnesota brought what looked like their 93-Power squad (technically 88 Pow), and laid a beatdown.
Cheez-It Bowl
(7-5) #56 California 61.3, 39-83 Pow
vs
(6-6) #38 TCU 67.7, 49-86 Pow
FINAL: TCU 10, Cal 7
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Thursday, Dec. 27
Walk-On’s Independence Bowl
(8-4) #50 Temple 63.6, 49-78 Pow
vs
(7-5) #47 Duke 64.5, 38-91 Pow
FINAL: Duke 56, Temple 27
OUTCOME: CORRECT
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
(7-5) #40 Miami 67.0, 48-86 Pow
vs
(7-5) #48 Wisconsin 64.4, 45-84 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
56.1% Miami
FINAL: Wisconsin 35, Miami 3
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
Very incorrect. Miami brought their 45 Pow-game (technically 31), and Wisconsin brought their 84-squad (actually 99).
Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
(6-6) #55 Baylor 61.4, 47-76 Pow
vs
(6-6) #45 Vanderbilt 65.2, 49-81 Pow
FINAL: Baylor 45, Vanderbilt 38
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
Friday, Dec. 28
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
(6-6) #29 Purdue 71.0, 43-99 Pow
vs
(7-5) #25 Auburn 72.1, 53-91 Pow
FINAL: Auburn 63, Purdue 14
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Camping World Bowl
(8-3) #9 West Virginia 79.6, 62-97 Pow
vs
(9-3) #26 Syracuse 71.8, 56-87 Pow
FINAL: Syracuse 34, West Virginia 18
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
Valero Alamo Bowl
(8-4) #23 Iowa State 73.3, 56-90 Pow
vs
(10-2) #10 Washington State 78.5, 62-95 Pow
FINAL: Washington State 28, Iowa State 26
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Saturday, Dec. 29
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
(9-3) #16 Florida 76.5, 62-91 Pow
vs
(10-2) #6 Michigan 85.2, 69-102 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
72.5% Michigan
FINAL: Florida 41, Michigan 15
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
Don’t want to think about it. Don’t want to talk about it. Don’t want to write about it.
(But #ForeverGoBlue)
Belk Bowl
(7-5) #27 South Carolina 71.2, 60-83 Pow
vs.
(7-5) #52 Virginia 62.7, 47-79 Pow
FINAL: Virginia 28, South Carolina 0
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
(8-4) #69 Arkansas State 59.3, 47-72 Pow
vs
(7-5) #90 Nevada 53.2, 35-71 Pow
FINAL: Nevada 16, Arkansas State 13
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
Monday, Dec. 31
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
(10-2) #28 Cincinnati 71.0, 57-85 Pow
vs
(6-6) #70 Virginia Tech 59.1, 35-83 Pow
FINAL: Cincinnati 35, Virginia Tech 31
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Hyundai Sun Bowl
(8-4) #20 Stanford 74.4, 63-86 Pow
vs
(7-6) #35 Pittsburgh 68.0, 47-89 Pow
FINAL: Stanford 14, Pittsburgh 13
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Redbox Bowl
(7-5) #39 Michigan State 67.2, 47-87 Pow
vs
(8-4) #36 Oregon 67.9, 48-88 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
54.8% Oregon
FINAL: Oregon 7, Michigan State 6
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Lol. Redbox Bowl. Lol.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
(8-4) #11 Missouri 77.9, 63-93 Pow
vs
(6-6) #37 Oklahoma State 67.7, 42-94 Pow
FINAL: Oklahoma State 38, Missouri 33
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
(8-5) #32 Northwestern 69.7, 48-91 Pow
vs
(9-4) #17 Utah 76.2, 61-92 Pow
FINAL: Northwestern 31, Utah 20
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
(9-3) #30 NC State 70.6, 57-84 Pow
vs
(8-4) #21 Texas A&M 74.4, 58-91 Pow
FINAL: Texas A&M 52, NC State 13
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Tuesday, Jan. 1
Outback Bowl
(8-4) #19 Mississippi State 75.0, 57-93 Pow
vs
(8-4) #13 Iowa 77.1, 59-96 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
56.4% Iowa
FINAL: Iowa 27, Mississippi State 22
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Another proud pick, as Mississippi State was a broad favorite, and Iowa pulled through with a win that was in-line with Hierank’s Power-comparison.
VRBO Citrus Bowl
(9-3) #22 Kentucky 73.4, 53-94 Pow
vs
(9-3) #12 Penn State 77.5, 57-98 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
58.9% Penn State
FINAL: Kentucky 27, Penn State 24
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
(9-3) #14 LSU 77.1, 55-100 Pow
vs
(12-0) #15 UCF 76.9, 63-91 Pow
FINAL: LSU 40, UCF 32
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual
(10-3) #8 Washington 80.7, 60-101 Pow
vs
(12-1) #7 Ohio State 84.6, 64-105 Pow
FINAL: Ohio State 28, Washington 23
OUTCOME: CORRECT
Allstate Sugar Bowl
(9-4) #18 Texas 75.4, 53-98 Pow
vs
(11-2) #3 Georgia 89.8, 74-105 Pow
Normal Power Distributions Gave:
76.9% Georgia
FINAL: Texas 28, Georgia 21
OUTCOME: INCORRECT
Presented merely to show one upset of probability worse than Michigan’s. Texas had more to play for than Georgia, and brought a better squad.
For final rankings after the Championship, visit here.
We’re excited to bring even smarter analyses in 2019-20 when we have the database computing power to add extra intelligence to each comparison such as additional weight to shared opponents & recent weeks, as well as doing linear & quadratic regressions to predict trends & next-performance.
Thank you for checking out our Bowl Review & Championship Preview! Please share, comment important input you may have below, & stay tuned for more project updates & football insights from Hierank!
